Unfortunately, More on Big Pap and the #3 Slot

For his first 5 years with the Sox, 2003 thru 2007, Big Pap DH’d regularly and had an overall average slugging percentage of .612, comfortably in the super star stratosphere. Two championships, fantastic all around!

Stats writer Chris Altruda, in the Yahoo preview of the Sox game tonight, says that for the Sox players and management, it’s not if Pap will return to form, but just a question of when. But they can’t really believe that. (What’s Tito gonna say to the reporters: “Yeah, Pap’s pretty much a goner…we just haven’t gotten around to embalming him yet.”) And the Globe readers, in a poll today, overwhelmingly believe that his all-star days are behind him.

The precipitous decline of Jim Rice is oft mentioned, but of course there have been others:

Age….Pap Slug….Rice Slug….Vaughn Slug.…Mantle Slug….DiMag Slug
32………507……….487………....….498………….....…591……….....…..522
33………293……….490…………......Inj……....……….452……….....…..598
34………………….…408……….....…456………...…….538……….....…..596
35………………….…406….……....…329…………...….434……….....…..585
36………………….…344…….....……Ret…………...…..398……….....…..422

All these guys had injuries, and all were done for at age 36. But none were totally washed up at age 33 like Pap seems to be. Maybe, like these guys, he does have a couple mediocre years—slug .425 to .450—left in him. Very unlikely we’ll see .500+ slugging again—or a legitimate #3 hitter for any length of time. If his decline stays more precipitous than those comparisons above, I guess it could be some combination of some or all of the following: injuries continuing worse than reported; pharmaceuticals had been involved; he really is older than reported; psychological issues; pitchers finally having a better book on him; vision issues; personal problems. Sad…but there’s a limit to how sorry you can feel for a fella who’s gonna have made over $70 million playing baseball, by the time his current contract is up…and has 2 rings for his trophy case.